I saw a funny meme yesterday. It was a branch with two claw marks. I’m sure you’re all familiar with the kitten poster from 1976. The kitten is hanging on a branch with the words “Hang In There!” Apparently the kitten let go. I cannot confirm if it let go on its own or if someone or something pulled it off the branch. Nature can be cruel, so there is the possibility that it was plucked for lunch by an eagle or some other taloned sky predator. All I know is that the kitty was gone. He very well could have made friends with a squirrel that helped him back up onto the branch. You never know.
This got me to thinking about Jits attrition. I’m sure I’ve said this before, and if I haven’t, you probably already guessed it. I am what some would call a nerd. I like to figure shit out. I have an insatiable appetite for learning new things, building models, figuring out patterns, and generally trying to make things better. The Gracie brothers have a video on YouTube on the topic, and since they have a good working knowledge of the industry, without a lot of fact checking, let us take them at their word on face value. But let us also assume a 10% fudge factor in their estimates to keep everyone honest.
There are 7 Billion people on the planet. Of that 7 Billion, 1/10 of 1% show up for a Jiu Jitsu class. One class, two classes. Does not matter. They walked in at least once. That means 7 Million people at one point or another gave it a go. But of that 7 Million, only about 10% make it to blue belt. They felt this number was on the high side. I cannot say for sure. But let us assume the number is close. That gives us a 90% attrition rate from white to blue. I was kind of surprised the number was so high, but then I reflected back on my first year of Jits. Faces come. Faces go. One class. A few classes. Sporadic attendance. Maybe it does make sense. Life can get in the way. Injuries can get in the way. And you have to appreciate that it is simply not for everyone. So whether by the eagle or squirrel, they let go.
For the record, I am not entirely satisfied with this analysis. I would have liked to know of the people that show up, how many stay long enough to be considered a white belt. Their statistic of 10% is the graduation from white to blue, so I think knowing this would be a better benchmark. A challenge for another day.
The bottom line is that I am not letting go. And from white belt to white belt, you know in your heart immediately if this life is for you. If shit gets in the way, make it a speed bump, not a road block. I know before we said DBAP. Well in this case, I want you to BAP. The one that keeps holding on.
Keep on truckin’.